OilFans.com :: HBomb's Ground Zero: Pre-Deadline Speculation
HBomb's Ground Zero: Pre-Deadline Speculation
Tyler HupkaMarch 6, 2004

First off, I didn't really post reaction to the Nedved deal, so here it is in a nutshell. I am a big fan of this deal, we didn't give up much and got some help for the two positions we needed it the most, center and goaltender.

Now, while I don't think Jussi is the long-term solution in goal (meaning that Lowe may need to package Rita with something at some point to get a Noronen, Biron, Gerber or Garon), Nedved is an interesting case. I don't think that it's so cut-and-dry that he's just a rental. When the Oilers don't pick up his option, I personally don't think the demand for his services will be overwhelming. As such, maybe they can get him on a two year deal at a lower rate and allow further development of Pouliot, Niinimaki and Brodziak, securing the center position both short and long term. That will wait to be seen this summer, however. On to more immediate issues and possible issues regarding the Oil and the trade deadline.

Now, Lowe said he's "probably" done trading, but take that with a grain of salt. First, Mike York's return will trigger a need for someone to come out of the line-up. Of the twelve guys dressed at forward on Thursday, who is deserving of a benching? The guy who deserves it most, despite his improved play of late, is probably Adam Oates.

However, as simple as it may seem, you don't just bench a future Hall-of-Famer. The more likely scenario, in my opinion, is that Kevin Lowe will present Oates the opportunity to be dealt to a contender for the Cup for one last kick at the cat. Given injuries to Kris Draper and Pavel Datsyuk, Oates' past success with Brett Hull, and the fact that he started his career there, could an Oates to Detroit trade happen? I wouldn't be the least bit surprised.

Now, concerning the dealing of defensemen, I don't expect the Oilers to be carrying 8 defensemen on Tuesday night against the Flames. I fully expect one of Igor Ulanov or Cory Cross to be dealt for a draft pick or mid-range minor leaguer, in order to open up a hole and allow Alexei Semenov, seemingly victim of a numbers game at this point, to return to the Oiler line-up for the final dozen games.

However, will this be the only move made on or before the deadline? Talk of Jason Smith being traded has somewhat subsided, as have the discussions about Georges Laraque. However, the Ottawa Senators, a definite cup contender maybe looking for that bit of grit to push them over the top in the east, have been rumoured in discussions with Kevin Lowe all season, so it seems. I wouldn't be surprised if perhaps, in a move based on a "win now" philosophy by John Muckler, if the Sens were to offer one of goalie Ray Emery or young center Antoine Vermette along with puck-moving young defenseman Karl Rachunek for a package of Laraque and Smith. Smith is a force on the Oiler blueline, in the midst of a career season, and Laraque is playing some of his best hockey right now. However, Laraque is often a streaky player, and with Smith heading to UFA status in the summer of 2005 (assuming there's hockey next year), the philosophy of "buy low, sell high" may kick into play at this point. I don't expect this deal to happen, but if there is a "blockbuster" trade involving the Oilers on or before Tuesday, I expect the Senators to be the dance partner in such an occurrence.

So, assuming that Brad Isbister and Marty Reasoner are damned to the IR for the rest of the year (Reasoner's knee doesn't sound to be getting any better, and quiet whispers from some people I talk to say that Isbister may have a fractured ankle that hasn't been discussed), upon Mike York's return to the line-up and assuming that Oates and one of Ulanov/Cross is dealt, I expect the Oiler line-up to look like this come Tuesday night against Calgary:

Smyth Horcoff Pisani
Torres Nedved Dvorak
Moreau York Hemsky
Chimera Stoll Laraque
EXT: Bishai

Brewer Smith
Staios Semenov
Bergeron Cross/Ulanov (one or the other)
EXT: Ferguson

Markannen
Salo

IR: Conklin, Reasoner, Isbister

A couple of wildcards exist, however. First, the scenario of a deal with Ottawa, which would seriously alter the makeup of this team, but would be a good long-term move for the Oilers nonetheless. Two, the status of Ty Conklin: if the doctors deem him ready to return to the line-up and he is able to backup Markannen, I would not be surprised to see Tommy Salo moved to a contender as a backup for the stretch drive, given Salo's club-option status this summer that the Oilers (or no other team, for that matter) will pick up. Toronto and New Jersey have been mentioned as likely candidates. On top of this, say the Oilers were to deal to New Jersey: could they possibly deal Salo plus the first round pick received from Philly in the Mike Comrie deal and possibly get AHL prospect Ari Ahonen out of the Devils? Not likely, but with Martin Brodeur firmly in place as the Devils franchise goalie for the foreseeable future, Ahonen is a player that Lou Lamorrello may just part with. But would Salo and a 1st be enough? Probably not, but this is a team that gave up a big young center (Mike Rupp) PLUS a 2nd round pick for Jan Hrdina, so you just never know sometimes.

Should be an interesting last 72 hours before the most anticipated trade deadline day in NHL history.



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